The
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is the latest major development project
“blessing” the African continent and now completed is the largest hydroelectric
dam on the continent. It began being built in 2011 on the River Nile near the
Sudan border. The dam is set to flood 1680 square kilometres of forest in North
West Ethiopia and create a reservoir that will hold around 70 billion cubic
metres of water (Veilleux,
2013).
The project’s projected
electricity capacity is 6,000 MW and is seen to be the answer to Ethiopia’s
growing demand for energy as economic growth and a better quality of life
prevails. Nevertheless, it has also faced the wrath of Egypt and their concern
that upstream manipulation of the water will diminish their “lions-share” of
the river that they are entitled to according to 20th century
treaties. The thoughts of local Egyptians regarding the GERD construction is demonstrated
in a video in my previous blog.
Although the GERD (pictured above) is a symbol that Africa is developing and highlights a historic moment in Ethiopian history is has caused major unrest between Egypt and Ethiopia and to an extent Sudan. Ethiopia argued that its contribution to around 85% of the Nile’s waters gives it the right to build this dam for the good of its country and future sustainability of water and food sources. Despite huge unrest, Egypt, which relies almost exclusively on the Nile for farming, industry and domestic water use, has been assured that the GERD will not meaningfully cut the flow of water to its rapidly ballooning population. This was the basis upon which Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia co-operated by signing an agreement which included giving priority to downstream countries for electricity generated by the dam.
Although the GERD (pictured above) is a symbol that Africa is developing and highlights a historic moment in Ethiopian history is has caused major unrest between Egypt and Ethiopia and to an extent Sudan. Ethiopia argued that its contribution to around 85% of the Nile’s waters gives it the right to build this dam for the good of its country and future sustainability of water and food sources. Despite huge unrest, Egypt, which relies almost exclusively on the Nile for farming, industry and domestic water use, has been assured that the GERD will not meaningfully cut the flow of water to its rapidly ballooning population. This was the basis upon which Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia co-operated by signing an agreement which included giving priority to downstream countries for electricity generated by the dam.
An agreement between
these 3 riparians looked far off when Ethiopia first announced their project
and Egypt prime minister backlashed angrily by stating “If our share of Nile
water decreases, our blood will be the alternative”. At this stage a water war
looked far more likely than an agreement and Abdul Jameel of the World Water
and Food Security Lab was concerned about the lack of cooperation between
riparian states on the Nile Basin and a potential water war forming. His fears
regarding the implementation of 2 major dams on an international river without
the necessary agreements and cooperation required are, in my opinion,
justified.
“We are aware of no situation comparable to that which will be
realized in the near future in the Nile, wherein two storage facilities that
are so large relative to the annual flow of an international river will coexist
without some institutional agreement in place” (Jameel, 2015).
With Africa being a very
vulnerable continent as it is, further conflict and a lack of unification could
and would affect the development of the least developed continent on Earth. In
this regard the signing of the agreement "declaration of principles"
in 2015 between the 3 countries came as a relief and also a stepping stone to
perhaps further unification in the world’s most controversial river basin.
Although Egypt has recently
adopted a less dominant and possessive stance in relation to their “source of
life” – The Nile – fears regarding future water scarcity for a population not
only growing but also 100% dependent on the Nile have not been alleviated.
Regardless of negotiations Egypt will still be unable to meet its future water
needs. It must take steps now to reduce its domestic water usage regardless of
the negotiation’s outcome (Mason, 2005). I will be looking at what Egypt could
potentially do in terms of supply-side management and demand –side management
to avoid insecurity fears and a lack of food in future posts.
It
has always been a national priority for Egypt to avoid water shortages.
"The first consideration of any Egyptian government is to guarantee that
Nile waters are not threatened" (Heikal, 1978). On the other hand one can
argue the case for Ethiopia wanting create some security for itself by
implementing a dam which will ensure a steady water supply for years to come.
So, to what extent do riparian states look to co-operate and what is the best
way to ensure fair access for all states? I believe that increased co-operation
has been evident in the last couple of decades and at the same time we have
seen development take place at a greater rate. “By coming together to jointly
manage their shared water resources, countries build trust and prevent
conflict” (Kameri-Mbote, 2007). Yes, agreement and unification is definitely
necessary in the basin to achieve sustainable development and avert water and
food insecurity issues but this isn’t enough. Talking about the aforementioned
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and its positive effects, Mbote states, “However,
high-level negotiations like the NBI are not enough; civil society must be
involved”. Involving stakeholders to
ensure no conflict and enhance the efficiency of the basin is paramount and I
believe that the recent co-operation in the basin is necessary going forward.
However, it remains to be seen whether 1) Ethiopia will compromise Egypt’s
access to water 2) Africa’s hydro political stance has shifted from unilateral
to co-operation. One thing is for sure – Egypt’s dominant reign over the basin
is now over as the African paradigm shifts yet again.
References
Cascão, A.E. (2009) Changing power relations in the Nile river basin: Unilateralism vs. Cooperation? Available at: http://www.water-alternatives.org/index.php/allabs/52-a2-2-5/file
Jameel, A. (2014) The grand Ethiopian renaissance dam: An opportunity for collaboration and shared benefits in the eastern Nile basin. Available at: 
