The Nile River Basin : A Tilt in Power ?

Part I 

In the first of this 2-part case study I will introduce the fastest growing river basin in the world and how it’s diminishing resources are putting a strain on inter-state politics and food security. In the second part I will delve deeper into particular developmental projects in Africa and the repercussions for the geo-political landscape of the basin.

Having outlined the ongoing water scarcity problems surrounding Africa in previous posts it may come as a surprise to some that the world’s longest river runs through the core of continent. The River Nile basin has a population of 225 million (UNEP, 2011) and is home to 3 of the most heavily concentrated populations in Africa – Lake Victoria, Egypt and the Ethiopian Highlands. With water being such a precious commodity and 11 countries situated along it’s river basin - all with high demographic and economic growth rates- the River Nile is the cause of increasing conflict.

Egypt accounts for 9% of the basin’s area but holds one third of the basin’s booming population whilst Sudan accounts for a colossal 65% of the basin but only holds half of the population that Egypt does (Ciesen, 2010). This begs the question - who has the right to more of this precious resource? – the countries which are home to most of the basin’s population or the basin’s total coverage or should all riparian’s have equal access?

As a result of being such a vast body, the Nile covers a variety of climates which face different annual precipitation and evapotranspiration rates. As a result, some nations rely on the Nile more than others…

As can be seen from the above picture, The Nile basin, including its main tributaries -the White Nile and the Blue Nile - is shared by eleven countries - Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Hence, the Nile has become emblematic of trans boundary water disputes pitting upstream development ambitions against downstream fears of water security. A changing balance in power between riparian states is shaping current developments. Historically Egypt, the country furthest downstream, has occupied a dominant position within the Nile basin. It was able to secure most of the Nile’s water and heavily tap the river’s resources in order to develop its agriculture and industry via a 1929 treaty. Over the last few decades however, upstream riparian’s have experienced considerable economic growth and political consolidation which has brought them into a position where they can challenge Egypt’s hegemonic status. One country which has particularly prevailed in this regard is Ethiopia, the source to some 85% of the River Nile’s total water. Facing improved opportunities to harness their water resources, but also an increase in demand for energy and arable surfaces in the wake of mushrooming populations, upstream countries have embarked upon ambitious development projects along the Nile much to the anger of Egypt who fear a decrease in downstream river flows; sparking mass water and food security issues.

As mentioned earlier, a 1929 treaty was signed by Great Britain and 10 East African colonies as a guideline for how much water each country owned. The treaty stated Egypt owned 80% of the water and Sudan owned 10% which was one day bound to be contested by other nations- especially Ethiopia which contributes over half of the Nile’s water. Fast forward a few decades and countries such as Ethiopia experienced a sudden boom in their economy resulting in a significant increase in the demand for water (Picket, 1991). El Fadel (2003) concurred by suggesting rising populations and limited resources were increasing tensions in the basin and that every nation had their own economic ambitions and future aspirations. As such countries began to stand up to “bully’ Egypt and grew tired of first getting permission from Egypt before using river Nile water for any development project like irrigation, the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was formed.  Seeking a mutually acceptable basis for cooperation in the Nile basin, the riparians established the NBI in 1999, an interstate partnership with the objective of developing 'the river in a cooperative manner, sharing substantial socioeconomic benefits, and promoting regional peace and security' (NBI, 2015).

Next, in 2010, five upstream states signed a Cooperative Framework Agreement to extract more water from the River Nile — a move strongly opposed by Egypt and Sudan who describe the Nile as their” jewel”.

This is the root cause of the conflict along the Nile basin as upstream countries such as Egypt and Sudan oppose the growing mutiny from other riparians. Egypt, who suffer from extreme desert heat rely heavily on the Nile’s upstream water for irrigation and basic needs. Sudan, who experience mass water loss through evapotranspiration i.e. in the Sudd Swamp also are heavily dependent on the Nile. As downstream countries’ voices are slowly beginning to be heard on issues surrounding the basin it was left to the likes of Ethiopia to set the precedence and begin developmental projects for a sustainable future.

In part II of this case study I will be delving deeper into how well the 11 countries on the Nile river basin are cooperating for a sustainable future and also evaluate the current and future success of dam projects for upstream and downstream counterparts – namely the Grand Renaissance Dam.

In summation, the development of southern countries in the basin plus a pressing need to address a growing water and food scarcity problem looks to have shifted the basin’s power dynamics both upstream and southwards (Gebreluel, 2014).

Bibliography 

• http://www.ielrc.org/content/a0907.pdf
• https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281641708_Water_Conflict_Case_Study_-_Ethiopia's_Grand_Renaissance_Dam_Turning_from_Conflict_to_Cooperation
• http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0163660X.2014.926207?journalCode=rwaq20
• http://www.unep.org/pdf/africa_water_atlas.pdf