Africa Feeling The Heat

A picture speaks a thousand words. Little more needs to be said. Africa is staring down the barrel. A bleak, empty and significantly dry barrel. 

The reality of climate change is almost undisputed now, and the findings in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are stronger and more definite than ever before. Yet, if you were to mention climate change to the now president of the United States, Donald Trump, you would be greeted with an ignorant chuckle and ushered to the exit of the White House. As part of his (successful) presidential campaign he branded climate change as “fictional” and “a hoax”. Millions across the globe wish he was correct. The fact of the matter remains that the global climate is changing; causing more extreme weather conditions, a warming of the Earth’s surface and, in Africa, aggravating water hence food insecurities.

Upon writing this piece I stumbled across a very insightful journal citing human factors (population explosion and urbanization) as the leading contributor to depleting groundwater resources in Africa (Carter and Parker, 2009). I felt as if this notion had to be challenged. Surely Africa’s physical features such as it’s Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and high evapotranspiration rates promote geographic variability of precipitation and deplete groundwater resources respectively as more extreme, less predictable weather conditions prevail?

To provide some context to my thoughts it has been recorded that evapotranspiration rates are around 70-90% across Africa. In comparison, London has an approximate 50% rate (Jones, 2015). Bearing in mind Africa’s surface temperature is set to rise by around 4 degrees Celsius, these rates will increase (Hassan, 2002). For those non-geographers reading this page, evapotranspiration is the sum of evaporation from the land surface plus transpiration from plants (essentially evaporation of water from leaves). Therefore, in Africa, a small variation in rainfall can have a drastic impact on water retained for agricultural or other use. Consequently,

“by 2020, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% across much of Africa. Projected reductions in yield in some countries could be as much as 50% by 2020, and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farmers being the most affected. This would adversely affect food security in the continent and exacerbate malnutrition” (UNEP, 2007).

Of course extreme weather conditions such as droughts have been prominent across Africa and have increased in volume more recently. Like losses in groundwater due to evapotranspiration, low/no precipitation will undoubtedly affect food security. In the next edition of my blog I will be going into further detail about droughts in Africa and hone in on a particular region which has seen unprecedented amounts of rainfall and is facing fatal repercussions without strong governance and altered agricultural practices.

The arid/semi-arid climate of Africa could soon become a fully arid, growing seasons are becoming longer and extreme weather conditions are becoming more prominent. As climate change continually affects water and food security we will reach a tipping point. One may argue this tipping point has already been reached as conflict between riparian nations grow and agricultural yields reach record lows. Yet one pressing issue still remains. What is Africa going to do about it’s seemingly inevitable demise? Adaptation will be key. At the end of the day climate change undoubtedly affects water access which (as mentioned in my first blog) affects everything. 

References

·Besada, H. and Werner, K. (2014) ‘An assessment of the effects of Africa’s water crisis on food security and management’, International Journal of Water Resources Development, 31(1), pp. 120–133
·Climate change impacts on agriculture (2016) Available at: http://www.agrivi.com/climate-change-impacts-on-agriculture/.
·Fields, S. (2005) ‘Continental divide: Why Africa’s climate change burden is greater’, Environmental Health Perspectives, 113(8), pp. A534–A537.
·Hassan, F.A. (ed.) (2002) Droughts, food, and culture: Ecological change and food security in Africa’s later prehistory. 
·Jones, L. (2015) Sub-Saharan African countries are failing to plan for climate change. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/13/no-sub-saharan-african-countries-planning-for-climate-change.
·Niang, I. et al. 2014. Africa. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1199-1265. 
·UNEP (2008) Available at: http://www.unep.org/roa/amcen/docs/AMCEN_Events/climate-change/2ndExtra_15Dec/FACT_SHEET_CC_Africa.pdf.